Agenda Digitale: Innovation or Disruption? The 6-Step Model for Anticipating Markets

The 6D model of disruption describes technological evolution as a systemic sequence of interconnected phases. It analyzes the dynamics between incumbents and new entrants, user behaviors, and the business models that are reshaping value creation in digital markets.

By Francesco Derchi, Professor and Area Chair of Digital Business at OPIT – Open Institute of Technology

Understanding these dynamics is essential for businesses, managers, and public policymakers who want to anticipate the impact of new technologies rather than suffer them. From this perspective, the 6D model of disruption represents a particularly useful tool for interpreting technological evolution as a systemic sequence of interconnected phases.

From Marginality to Diffusion: How Technologies Become Dominant

The model’s premise is simple yet powerful: many innovations don’t become dominant immediately. In the initial stages, they often appear expensive, marginal, and difficult to deploy, accessible only to a minority of players or users.

Over time, thanks to technical advances, the diffusion of skills, and the reduction of costs, these same technologies become progressively more accessible, widespread, and integrated into economic and social life. Disruption, therefore, is not an isolated event but a chain of successive steps, in which each stage enables the next and contributes to redefining the competitive landscape.

Incumbents and New Entrants: Winners and Losers in the Disruption Trajectory

Looking at technological transformation through the 6Ds allows us to connect two dimensions that are often analyzed separately: the evolution of technology and the behavior of market players. When a technology advances along this trajectory, the balance between incumbents and new entrants also changes.

Some companies are able to exploit the emerging phase of innovation to introduce alternative business models, while others, more established, struggle to adapt to change and risk losing ground. In this sense, the model serves not only to describe technological change, but also to understand how it reshapes competitive dynamics between companies.

The Player Map: How to Spot Who’s Leading, Chasing, or Breaking the Rules

A key aspect of the framework is its ability to visualize the map of players along the progression of disruption. Analyzing an industry means first identifying those driving innovation, those trying to follow it, and those attempting to overturn the rules of the game.

The distinction between incumbent and insurgent is not just a theoretical classification: it allows us to understand how strategies evolve when technology becomes more widespread and accessible, changing the relationship between operational efficiency, value proposition and the ability to attract new users.

Users, investments, behaviors: the transformations that accompany technological evolution

The model also suggests carefully observing the transformational dynamics that accompany technological evolution. This isn’t just about technical advances, but also about changes in user behavior, investment flows, and ways of accessing services.

Innovations are often initially adopted by a minority of pioneers and innovators, then gradually spread to broader segments of the population as they become easier to use and less expensive. Understanding this sequence helps businesses and organizations identify the best time to invest, experiment, or reposition.

The case of hospitality: a sector that has gone through all the phases of disruption

A prime example of this evolution is the hospitality and travel industry. Over time, the sector has undergone a recognizable progression: first the rise of digital aggregators that facilitate the search for offers, then the emergence of platforms based on online reputation, and finally the spread of the sharing economy and peer-to-peer models.

Each step has redefined the way value is created and delivered, introducing new players and transforming user expectations of the service.

Beyond Technology: Disruption as a Redesign of the Value Creation System

This perspective highlights an often overlooked strategic point: disruption is not just about the technology itself, but how it redesigns the value creation system.

In digital markets, competitive advantage no longer depends solely on the ownership of assets or infrastructure, but on the ability to orchestrate relationships between different players, build ecosystems, and develop new ways of interacting between users, platforms, and services. Value increasingly emerges from the overall configuration of the business model — that is, the way an organization creates, distributes, and captures value in the market.

Ecosystems, platforms, and co-creation: an integrated understanding of change

For this reason, applying the 6D model doesn’t mean simply observing the advancement of a technology. It means building an integrated understanding that includes business models, partnerships, platform dynamics, and ways of co-creating value between companies and users.

In many cases, in fact, the most disruptive innovations emerge precisely when the way in which value is generated and captured within an economic ecosystem changes, rather than from the simple introduction of a new technological solution.

Anticipating Industrial Trajectories: The 6D Model as a Strategic Tool

From a strategic perspective, the framework’s main contribution is the ability to anticipate industrial trajectories. Recognizing the stage of a technology’s evolution allows for more robust hypotheses about future market developments.

Companies can thus decide when to experiment with new models, when to consolidate their position, or when to radically rethink their offerings. In this sense, the model becomes a tool for analysis as well as for decision-making.

The Role of Public Policy Makers: Managing Disruption Without Suppressing It

At the same time, public policymakers can also use this perspective to design more timely industrial and regulatory policies. Intervening too early can stifle innovation; intervening too late risks creating concentrations of power that are difficult to rebalance.

Understanding the progressive logic of disruption therefore becomes essential even for those who must govern economic transformation processes.

An essential skill: recognizing progressions to navigate change

Ultimately, the 6D model invites a shift in perspective: rather than interpreting innovation as a succession of isolated events, it proposes viewing it as a systemic evolutionary trajectory. This trajectory intertwines technology, business models, user behavior, and competitive dynamics between companies. For organizations operating in increasingly unstable and complex environments, developing the ability to recognize these progressions is not only an analytical advantage, but an essential strategic skill for navigating the industrial transformations that are redefining the digital economy.